Last year I made some predictions and it is well past time to “true up” and see how accurate I was. Here is the link to my 2021 predictions: https://hoymanor.com/2021/01/11/predictions-for-2021/
Prediction 1: Monstrously huge data breach.
I predicted a single breach affecting a minimum of 300 million people. All the 2021 data breaches together affected a total of 294 million people. My numbers were way off! https://www.cnet.com/tech/services-and-software/record-number-of-data-breaches-reported-in-2021-new-report-says/
Prediction 2: Power Outage on Chicago’s South Side
My specific prediction was that the power outage would be extended and that it would result in a giant barbecue cookout. This did not happen but you won’t hear any complaints from me about it.
On July 24th and 29th, we had some big outages but ComEd brought the power back up before the barbecue mayhem could begin.
We had a large power outage on August 24th but the thunderstorms kept us from barbecuing our food during that time. https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/thousands-without-power-after-storms-pound-chicago-area-comed-officials-say/2597870/
Prediction 3: Mental Health Hospitalizations Soar to Record Levels
What a fun topic… NOT! I managed to stay out of the loony bin during the year 2021 but did most of us? We will have to wait for data from the CDC to verify this one, but it seems unlikely that I will score a point on this prediction. There was a surge in treatment for mental health disorders, but not specifically in the form of hospitalization. Also, the surge is linked to anxiety and depression, as opposed to my prediction of mania.
Prediction 4: Public Confidence Returns and Celebration in the Streets Ensues
Swing and miss. This obviously didn’t happen. People never got to the point where they felt safe, and there was never a cathartic outdoor gathering or a massive spontaneous celebration.
Prediction 5: Another Horrible Virus
For this one, I deserve a half point. The Omicron variant of COVID-19 destabilized our recovery from earlier strains of this virus.
Prediction 6: US Population Stagnates
I deserve another half point. 2021 US Population Estimate (according to Census.gov) 331,893,745. 2020 Population: 331,501,080. However, the population decreased in the Northeast, Midwest, and West regions! As usual, the jackrabbits down South kept doing their thing, and because they are a bigger slice of the pie this region’s population gains outweighed the population losses of the other regions.
Also, I want to mention that the Population growth has never been as close to zero as it did in the year 2021. https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/12/us-population-grew-in-2021-slowest-rate-since-founding-of-the-nation.html
Prediction 7: Church Membership Rises
Wrong. Zero points. https://www.pewforum.org/2021/12/14/about-three-in-ten-u-s-adults-are-now-religiously-unaffiliated/
Prediction 8: Mass Suicide Gets Very Little Attention
Nope. Apparently, I’m not very good at this. Maybe these predictions will make good fake headlines for the Plague Inc. game. There was a 500-person mass suicide attempt, which falls short of the prediction. Key word being: attempt. And I predicted a minimum of 700 deaths.
Suicide bombings don’t count; that is a different phenomenon entirely. The largest “mass suicide” was a family suicide of 4 people.
Prediction 9: Protests and Riots Meet with Dramatic Responce
One point awarded to me. I almost want to give myself two points because I was so on the mark with this prediction.
The January 6th insurrection. Those rednecks got their butts handed to them by federal law enforcement officials. There have been over 700 arrests and the number keeps increasing. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/05/us/politics/jan-6-capitol-riot-investigation.html
Outside the US things were even worse.
In March, security forces in Myanmar gunned down over 100 protesters in a single event. Over the course of the year, the government of Myanmar killed over 1,300 of its residents.
Mass protests in Russia resulted in 3,000 arrests in a single weekend. Many more protesters were beaten with clubs.
Hundreds of demonstrators in Cuba were beaten and jailed. And they remain in jail.
Mass protests and looting in South Africa and the Caribbean were quelled by military action, including deployment of Special Forces.
Israel and Palestine. Almost 300 people dead in less than 2 weeks from demonstration-related activity alone.
Prediction 10: A Blessed Year for My Family and Friends
My immediate family and my friends have had, for the most part, their basic needs attended to. There were some illnesses but we recovered. I lost one dear family member who had been suffering for several years. Overall a blessed year. One point.
Prediction 11: Minor problem with COVID Vaccine Results in Inflated Distrust of Authorities
A very rare reaction to the Johnson and Johnson COVID vaccine resulted in a temporary pause on administration of this vaccine, as well as fanning the flames of conspiracy theories, misinformation, and disinformation related to COVID and the vaccines. I still have family members I am unable to convince that the vaccine is safe.
In Alabama, less than half of the state’s population is vaccinated. A small point for my prediction score, and a giant leap downward for the human race.
Prediction 12: Deaths Resulting from Violence between Vaxxers and Anti-Vaxxers
Another point for me. I’m not happy about it. https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/26/public-health-officials-bullying-by-antivaxxers-endangers-us/
Doctors and parents are being attacked by radical Anti-Vaxxer groups. Disgusting and a total shame. Maybe enough Anti-Vaxxers will die from COVID that this unfortunate trend will fizz out.
Prediction 13: After Two “Speed Bumps” the Stock Market will do well for the year.
I award myself a full point on this. The first slump happened in March, but the second slump happened in October (not September as I had predicted). Nevertheless I did really well with this one and I am proud of myself.
Not that the stock market matters or has any relevance to regular people and their basic needs and comforts…
Prediction 14: US Households with Pets increase to beyond the 70% mark
I get a point for this even though the 70% threshold was passed in 2020. The reason is that the stats weren’t yet published. I had no access to those stats, so I win this one.
TOTAL SCORE: 7
A score of 7 out of 14 doesn’t seem great, especially considering that the most specific and quantifiable predictions were the ones I missed. Maybe I’ll stick with a single new prediction for 2022.
PREDICTION FOR THE YEAR 2022:
Bitcoin has not been doing great lately. Its value at the time of this writing is $41,707.60 USD.
For half credit: I predict that it will surge beyond $70,000 USD at some point in the year.
For full credit: I predict that it will surge beyond $80,000 USD at some point in the year.
I’d also like to carry forward my Prediction #1 for 2021 regarding the data breach.
I feel it is specific enough because of the minimum number of people affected. This one deserves a separate post to explore my concerns on this subject.
Hoy Manor 